May12
New Blackberry Bold 9000 is unveiled

Today was a big day for all the Blackberry lovers out there, the new BlackBerry Bold 9000 was unveiled by Research in Motion (Nasdaq:RIMM). In this press release RIM's CEO says "The new BlackBerry Bold represents a tremendous step forward in business-grade smartphones and lives up to its name with incredible speed, power and functionality, all wrapped in a beautiful and confident design." A quick glance at the phone will tell you that RIM put a lot into making this a very elegant phone that was pleasing to the eyes. The phone is said to be by far the smartest of the smartphone's that Research in Motion has ever built. blackberry%209000.jpg

The phone will have a 480x320 display, a very impressive 128 MB of flash memory and 1GB internal memory. The phone will have a full QWERTY keyboard as many of the BlackBerry models have. The talk time will be 5 hours and the stand by time 13 hours. Supposedly, the colors absolutely pop off the screen on this beauty of a phone. The web browser has also been upgraded quite substantially to be a far more user-friendly browser.

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May 8
Retail sales look pretty good, but is there a catch?

Today was the day for same store sales across the retail sector. Considering how they have done in recent months, the retailers released some pretty impressive numbers as a whole today. There were pockets of real strength along with some very notable weakness. Before going any farther I will point out some of the strongest and weakest releases.

Surprised to the upsideretail%20sales.jpg

  • Children's Place (Nasdaq:PLCE) This company is trying to right the ship and the recent sale of the Disney stores back to Disney seems to have helped in a big way already. PLCE came in at +15% vs estimates of 5.3%.
  • Saks (NYSE:SKS) The same store sales results were great, 23.9%, but it was tempered enthusiasm as the company said that promotions drove those sales, and margins would be hurt.
  • BJ's Wholesale (NYSE:BJ) Came in at 17.8% higher vs. estimates of 9.8% higher.
  • Aeropostale (NYSE:ARO) Up a staggering 25% vs. an estimate of 8%
  • Kohl's Corporation (NYSE:KSS) Reported a gain of 3.5% vs. estimates for 1.8%.
  • Abercrombie and Fitch (NYSE:ANF) Reported a 6% gain vs. estimates for a gain of just 2.4%
  • Costco (Nasdaq:COST) Reported an 8% gain vs. estimates of a 6.1% gain. This retailer has proven to be the most consistent of them all lately.

Surprises to the downside

  • The Gap (NYSE:GPS) Same store sales fell 6% vs. estimates of a loss of 1.8%. This company just continues to perpetually disappoint.
  • Target (NYSE:TGT) Same store sals were up 3.1%, but that fell short of estimates of a gain of 4.2% in the month.
  • Limited (NYSE:LTD) Results were worse than analysts had forecast, with the company reporting a loss of 5% vs. estimates of a 2.3% loss.
  • Pacific Sun (Nasdaq:PSUN) Reported an increase of 4%, but fell short of estimates for a 5.6% increase.
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May 7
Have interest rates bottomed out? What should the Fed do?

When the Fed moved to lower interest rates last week it took the fed funds rate down to 2.00%. Around the internet and all across business televisions most guests and most bloggers had proclaimed this the end of the Fed's interest rate cuts. Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing its intended fed funds rate rates have only been this low one other time, and that was in the period just after September 11th, 2001. ben%20bernanke.jpg

Let's put into perspective just how much rates have gone down and how fast they have done so. As of January 21st of this year the fed funds rate was at 4.25%. Here we are, not even four months later, and the rate is not down to 2%. There have been some complain about the Fed being behind the curve in lowering interest rates. The FOMC may have been a tick slow in easing rates to start with, but once they saw the economic problems no one can deny the fact that they acted very aggressively. In fact, twice in the span of two months the Fed lowered interest rates by 75 basis points at a time, which is extremely rare.

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May 5
So much for that changing of the guard on wall street!

Just last week I wrote about the possibility of a changing of the guard on wall street. Inside the post I wondered aloud whether the short-term large losses in oil prices and oil stocks, and commodity prices and commodity stocks while the rest of the market charged higher would become a true change, or just another headfake. In that post I spoke of the fact that there had been many headfakes in this area in the past, and that I would believe it when I saw it. Indeed, this was just another headfake. In less than a week oil has blown through $120 a barrel, and commodity prices and stocks are back on the increase, while the rest of the market lags behind.oil.jpg

Today the Dow lost 88.66, the Nasdaq fell 12.87, and the S&P 500 lots 6.41 points. The strongest sectors on the street were (you probably know before I even write this) basic materials, and energy stocks. Another sign that things were reverting back to old times was the weakness in financials and retailers.

Potash (NYSE:POT) shares rose 3.9% and Bunge Limited (NYSE:BG) rose 4.12% as the agricultural sector benefited from more gains in commodity prices. Gold prices went up nicely today, and many gold stocks did quite well. Freeport McMoran (NYSE:FCX) shares surged 5.23% to lead that group. Steel stocks were led by U.S. Steel (NYSE:X) which jumped 6.23% on strong volume.

Energy stocks were modestly higher on the day as oil prices finished above $120 a barrel for the first time ever. Weatherford International (NYSE:WFT) shares were higher by 2.36%. EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) shares jumped 3.75% on the day. Chesepeake Energy (NYSE:CHK) continued its recent tear, charging higher by another 3.93% today.

Some of the stocks that were most hurt in recent months by the credit crunch were hit hard again today. Washington Mutual (NYSE:WM) fell 7.88% on the day. Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) shares were down 4.1%, while Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) plunged 5.8%.

The retailers were hit pretty hard today as well. Kohl's Corporation (NYSE:KSS) lost 3.81% on the day. Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN) shares finished lower by 3.32% on slightly larger than average volume. Tiffany's (NYSE:TIF) fell by 3.48% on the day. All of these names are well off their 52 week lows hit a few months ago, but have shown some weakness the last few days.

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May 4
Weekly Earnings Preview for May 5th-9th

Earnings season will continue in high gear this week as many more major companies will report their results. With the FOMC meeting and the jobs data out of the way, earnings will take center stage even more than they have in the last couple of weeks. Here is a look at some of the major earnings reports to watch this coming week:

Monday May 5thearnings.jpg

  • Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) This company should be doing well with the high prices of gold, but some of its peers aren't. They are expected to earn 21 cents per share.
  • Vulcan Materials (NYSE:VMC) This was a great performing stock in past years, but it has hit hard times in the last year. Can the company turn it around? The market expects 56 cents per share.
  • Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) This company has really hit its stride of late and the market has reacted by bidding its stock up nicely. Expectations are high and investors are looking for $1 per share.

Tuesday May 6th

  • Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX) This is another gold company that has a mixed history with its earnings reports. Can it capitalize on the great environment for gold stocks?
  • D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) Everyone knows this report will be bad, but a lot of attention will be paid to the future guidance. Investors continue to look for any sign of a bottom in the housing market.
  • Legg Mason (NYSE:LM) This asset manager has had a lot of turmoil going on in the last few quarters and investors just want to see signs of a turnaround.
  • NYSE Euronext (NYSE:NYX) A lot of questions are still to be answered about the integration from the massive merger of Euronext and the NYSE and investors want answers quickly. The market is expecting 83 cents.
  • Qwest Corporation (NYSE:Q) This company just can't seem to get it right. Q has been mired down here in the single digits for quite some time. The street is expecting 10 cents.
  • Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) The turnaround seems to be in the making at Disney. Strength from their media side will be expected. The average estimate is for 51 cents per share.

Wednesday May 7th

  • Allergan (NYSE:AGN) Recent concerns about these results have hit the stock hard. Analysts expect 52 cents per share.
  • Foster Wheeler (Nasdaq:FWLT) Similar companies have missed their earnings targets, will Foster Wheeler be the next or can it buck the trend?
  • Transocean (NYSE:RIG) One of my favorite oil names will report Wednesday before the bell. The deepwater business has been very hot of late so expectations are high. The street is looking for $3.34 a share.
  • Crocs (Nasdaq:CROX) My how the mighty have fallen. Crocs was a darling on the street this time last year, but its shares now sit around $10 a share. If this company doesn't turn it around soon it will be doomed to being just a quick fashion trend with no staying power.

Thursday May 8th

  • Celgene (Nasdaq:CELG) This stock has been on a wild ride in the last few months. Celgene's report will mostly be watched for the sales and forecast for Revlimid, its monster drug.
  • NVIDIA Corporation (Nasdaq:NVDA) NVDA shares have been hit hard as economic worries brought this stock down hard. The street is expecting 38 cents per share.
  • Priceline.com (Nasdaq:PCLN) The earnings momentum that analysts had been waiting for from this company appears to have gotten here and the stock has responded. Expectations are high for this company.
  • Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM) Can Toyota continue to prove itself the best run company in the auto industry? It reports at 2 am Thursday morning.
  • Verisign (Nasdaq:VRSN) Verisign has outperformed most of its internet counterparts so investors are obviously optimistic about this company's prospects.

Friday May 9th

  • Huntsman Corporation (NYSE:HUN) This synthetics maker has missed its earnings estimate the last four quarters so don't expect any huge positive surprises here.
Microsoft abandons offer for Yahoo

Just yesterday Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT) decided it was no longer worth it to pursue Yahoo (Nasdaq:YHOO). The software tech giant pulled its $42.3 billion bid for Yahoo, and decided against raising the offer price. Yesterday there were last minute discussions between Microsoft and Yahoo regarding terms of a possible buyout, but the two sides couldn't agree on a sale price. ballmer%20and%20yang.jpg

Later in the day on Saturday Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer sent Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang a letter saying "clearly a deal is not meant to be." Also inside Ballmer's letter he made it clear that Microsoft had been willing to pay as much as $33 per share for Yahoo, a significant amount higher than its original bid of $29.40 per share. According to Ballmer, Yahoo's board demanded at least $37 per share for Yahoo, which in Microsoft's view was too steep of a price to pay for the struggling internet company.

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May 3
The inflation debate heats up.

Inflation is defined as an increase in the price of a basket of goods and services that is representative of the economy of a whole. It is an upward movement in the average level of prices. Let's talk more on a current economic basis though; what is that state of the inflation level of our economy? It is a highly debated topic right now that has been heated up even more by the recent Federal Reserve monetary policy statement from this past Wednesday. gas%20prices%20sign.jpg

The culprit is this line from the statement "The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters." The financial news networks were buzzing over that comment from the Fed the rest of the week, with plenty of guests showing the level of food inflation that has taken place already and talking about the energy price issue which has just turned into a circus.

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May 1
Changing of the guard or just a headfake?

Today was an interesting day on Wall Street. The overall market was very strong and the major indices all saw major gains, but if you look inside the sectors you will find an interesting picture. The normal suspects that have led the market for so long were very weak, and the stocks that have been under the most pressure were the strongest. wall%20street%20bull.jpg

It was the financials that had the biggest percentage gain of the major sectors today. JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) and US Bancorp (NYSE:USB) led the banking stocks, gaining 3.36% and 3.07% respectively. American Express (NYSE:AXP) popped higher by 6.89% on very heavy volume. Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) shares gained 5.12% today. Interestingly, IndyMac (NYSE:IMB) saw its shares rise 22% after saying that it sees improvement in its business and reporting a smaller loss than last quarter.

Technology stocks were also very strong today. VMWare (NYSE:VMW) shares rose 5.4% today and it has actually risen by over 50% in the last month. Research in Motion (Nasdaq:RIMM) shares jumped by 5.24% today. Broadcom (Nasdaq:BRCM) rose by 3.54% today, and the stock has made a nice move in the last few days since reporting impressive earnings.

Retail and consumer cyclical names also fared well today. American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO) shares rose 3.38% today. Macy's (NYSE:M) gained 3.99% on stronger than average volume. Even the home improvement names did very well today. Lowe's Companies (NYSE:LOW) charged higher by 4.29% on more than double its normal daily volume.

So what were the weak links? Energy and basic materials. Exxon Mobil's disappointing earnings set the tone, and the drop in oil prices helped doom oil stocks to a rare down day today. Apache Corporation (NYSE:APA) plunged 6.14% after the CEO was a bit cautious on 2008 growth. National Oilwell-Varco (NYSE:NOV) lost 3.94% and has now fallen about 15% in just the past 8 trading sessions. Freeport McMoran (NYSE:FCX) shares plunged 5.09% after trading near its 52 week high just a few days ago. Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX) fell 3.26% as gold prices continued to fall from recent high levels.

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Apr29
Top 5 Energy Stocks to own through a recession

Today will be the final installment in the mini-series I started last week that I have called "The top sectors to own through a recession." The point of this series is to let investors know what kind of stocks work in the economic downturn that we are in now, and in similar recessions in the future. Without further ado, its time to unveil the top five energy stocks to own through a recession. oil.jpg

Top 5 Energy Stocks to own through a recession

    1. ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) I'm a big fan of how ConocoPhillips is being run right now. It is a huge integrated oil company, but it is also allowing itself to profit from higher oil prices more than many of its competitors. The yield of 2.2% helps provide a little bit of a buffer on the shares as well.
    2. Transocean (NYSE:RIG) If this were just a list of my favorite energy stocks in general, this one would be number one. It gets eeked out by COP because of COP's size and power, but this company is a great way to play oil. RIG is the undisputed market leader in deepwater drilling and the deepwater drilling market is absolutely on fire. The merger with GlobalSantaFe is proving to be a great strategic move.
    3. Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE:CHK) Chesapeake is a market leader in the natural gas area. Natural gas has lagged behind crude oil significantly until lately, when it has started to catch up slightly. It is likely that over the long run natural gas will also do quite well.
    4. Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB) SLB provides the necessary oilfield technology services that so many different companies need. SLB is in a strong position because they have services that are difficult to duplicate, and they have a near monopoly in many of their areas.
    5. Ultra Petroleum (NYSE:UPL) This is by far the smallest company on this list, but it is also the best pure growth play on the price of oil and natural gas. If you believe oil and natural gas could continue to move higher through future recessions, this is a stock for you.
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Guest blog- The state of the market

Today I have a terrific guest post from Dan Hung, of The Curious Investor. Dan was gracious enough to provide GrowYourFunds readers with a guest blog regarding the current state of the market. As someone who has read quite a few of Dan's posts, I can tell you that he is very thorough and provides some great analysis. I encourage my readers to signup for his RSS Feed.

Current State of the market- Dan Hung 

Markets corrected nearly 20 percent over the last half year or so and, finally, after some violent and panicked selling, it seems that we’re looking at some sort of a bottom. Is it now time to buy? Everything seems cheap now, right? Not so fast.

Many believe that after the excesses of the internet bubble (circa 2000), our markets entered a post-bull trading range not dissimilar to that which U.S. equities saw between 1966 and 1982. What exactly is a post-bull trading range? Essentially, it is a period in which the market “pays back” the wild appreciation that it enjoyed in the years prior. These ranges are characterized by rapid blast offs and violent moves down which ultimately lead the broader markets in a big circle. Contrary to popular belief, these are not periods in which the broad economy is in a prolonged malaise. Instead, these are periods where market participants refuse to reward earnings growth with outsized gains in valuation and higher and higher P/E ratios. The cause of this is the tendency of markets to overshoot reasonable value. At which point, participants lose interest while they wait for reality to catch up with perception.

To illustrate, I’ve included a graph of the S&P 500 and its P/E ratio from 1900 to 2006 (courtesy of Bespokeinvest.typepad.com).

figure1.png

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